Week 9: Coulda Been Better

 

Standings

The Bulls did OK over in Norfolk last week, but to win the International League, they needed to have done much better. They lost 4 out of 6 games. They are alone in 2nd place in the International League, but several teams are close on their heels, including the team that’s coming to town today. And that’s a slip of a full game from the week before.

How bad was it? Bulls pitching allowed 36 runs over the 6 games; they scored 27.  Their team ERA crept upward during most of the week.

While the team OPS and Run Differential was creeping downward

The Bulls continue to lead the league in strikeouts (1283! 25% of all plate appearances) and being caught stealing.

The roster saw a few more changes, notably new catcher Logan Driscoll and infielder Ronny Simon.  Other changes? Well, Curtis Mead is back (for a while) and Jonathan Aranda is up with the Rays. Still on the roster is Rays catcher Francisco Mejia who was with the Bulls on a rehab assignment and then got dumped.  The only position player left who’s on the 40-man is  Greg Jones, but he has not played in quite a while (his last appearance was July 22). As is usual, no information on his status is available. Several pitchers (5) are on the 40-man, but I’ve no idea how the Rays may treat them.

What happens in September? Haven’t a clue. A good idea is to listen to Patrick Kinas’ analyses during the games since he is very good at digging through the pitching situations.

Weather

This week is going to be tricky. Here’s what I do. I check the camera to see if the tarp’s on the field. If I’ve got a ticket I still wait for them to pull the tarp since I live about 30 minutes from the DBAP. If I’m feeling lazy, I just wait and watch the game on TV. You all do know that WRAL broadcasts every home game, don’t you?

The Next Couple of Weeks

As mentioned, this is the next-to-last home series. Then the Bulls go to Charlotte  (11-40) for 6 games; come back to play Louisville (25-26) for 6 games; and then go to Gwinnett (24-25) for 6 games.

The Worcester Red Sox, currently in first place in the IL, are off on a southern swing to end their season. They play Norfolk (28-23), Gwinnett (24-25), come home to Syracuse (19-30), and off to Lehigh Valley (29-22). So they have a fairly challenging month ahead of them and only one series at home. 

Rays Stuff

Since late July the Rays have been playing very good baseball. Unfortunately, Baltimore has been better. And they show no sign of slowing down as September comes. 

A thoughtful update is here.  And here. If you are into geek stuff then here’s a look at how “lucky” they have been. 

The status of former Bull Wander Franco is a mystery.

Matchup

Matchup: Bulls vs Sounds, August 29, 2023
As of August 27	W-L	Rk	RDiff	OPS	ERA	WHIP	uERA
Durham Bulls (Rays)	30-21	2	49	.816	4.83	1.46	.642
Nashville Sounds (Brewers)	28-22	6	16	.791	4.39	1.39	.688
RDiff-Run differential;  Rk - Rank in International League; WHIP - Walks/Hits per Inning; uERA-unearned runs per 9 innings

This will be games 13 thru 18 for the Bulls and Sounds. They split 3-3 at the DBAP in May, but early in the month, the Bulls went 4-2 in Nashville. On paper, the Brewers’ franchise has terrific pitching and just OK hitting and fielding. My guess the Bulls are going to have to depend on how well the Rays treat them on callups (up to Tampa Bay; up from Montgomery). 

Robot Umpires

Lastly, here’s a very good article on the prospect of ABS moving up into MLB baseball. Spoiler alert: the “challenge” approach seems OK; the umpires union will have a say. My own view is that the challenge approach works. It doesn’t seem to slow the game down very much. Let me big guys argue about how many. 

I was never a big fan of “pitch framing” being a valued catcher’s skill and roboump simply takes that off the table.  

We had a couple of games where we had a rehabbing major league umpire behind the plate, so ABS wasn’t in use. I didn’t notice any difference, but the players did argue more.

Week 8: Durham Bulls Dominate Gwinnett Stripers

 

Standings

The Durham Bulls had a very good week, taking 5 of 6 games against the Gwinnett Strippers (Atlanta Braves) and moving up into sole possession of 2nd place in the International League.  They are only ½ game back. The current standings also show just how deeply flawed this bizarre version of the International League is. Note that of the 7 teams currently in contention, Durham will have played only two of them before the end of the season (Lehigh Valley and Jacksonville). 

Highlights of the week include fine performances of new guys Ronny Simon (3 games so far), Carson Williams (4), Raimel Tapia (8), and Alex Jackson (13). Plus rehabbing catcher Francisco Mejia was in six games. None of these players, except for Mejia, of course, are on the Rays' 40-man. All those guys help make up for Osleivis Basabe, Curtis Meade and Jonathan Aranda being up with Tampa Bay. 

As might be expected, the Bulls’ stats are running in very nice improving trends. They hit a season-high +59 in their run differential. Their team OPS of .823 was a 10-point improvement. On the downside, strikeouts continue at a very high rate and they have not gotten any better at stealing bases.

Matchup

Matchup: Bulls vs Tides, August 22, 2023
As of August 20	W-L	Rk	RDiff	OPS	ERA	WHIP	Fld%
Durham Bulls (Rays)	28-17	2	56	.823	4.78	1.46	.977
Norfolk Tides (Orioles)	24-21	9	26	.820	4.57	1.47	.980
RDiff-Run differential;  Rk - Rank in International League; WHIP - Walks/Hits per Inning;

The Bulls are playing the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore Orioles)  this week.  They’ve played them 15 times this year (9 in Durham and 6 in Norfolk). In those games, the Bulls did not do well, winning just 4. On the other hand, Norfolk is not nearly as dominant in the 2nd half of the season (they won the first half),  but they are on a 3-game winning streak. Overall, their basic stats are as good as the Bulls, perhaps better.  Notice that their respective parent clubs are 1 and 2 in the American League East.

Week 7: Bulls Take the Series

The Bulls had a very good week against Memphis, winning 4 out of 6 games. That puts them in a three-way tie for third place in the 20-team International League. But several of the teams in contention are on a roll. Gwinnett, the team coming to town today, has won 8 in a row, Iowa has won 5 in a row; Jacksonville and Worchester are 8 of 10. We have just 6 weeks left in the season, so looks like things will have to sort themselves out soon.

The Bulls did just fine last week. They lost two important players, Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe, to the Rays (they are doing just fine up there) and kept on truckin’. And the pitching roster has been chaotic — 9 transactions involving pitchers in the last 7 days! 

Have to mention Jonathan Aranda’s back-to-back 2 home run games. Stellar performance. Can’t imagine his sticking around past September.

Overall, the Bulls outscored Memphis 41 to 35 and raised their 2nd-half run differential to +40, the best it's been all year. On the downside, they continue to lead the league in strikeouts, striking out more than 25% of the time.

Matchup

Matchup: Bulls vs Braves, August 15, 2023
As of August 13	W-L	Rk	RDiff	OPS	ERA	WHIP	Fld%
Durham Bulls (Rays)	23-16	3	40	.817	4.79	1.45	.977
Gwinnett Stripers (Braves)	21-16	7	28	.761	5.15	1.46	.985
RDiff-Run differential;  Rk - Rank in International League; WHIP - Walks/Hits per Inning;

The Bulls start a 6-game set against the Gwinnett Strippers today. From a pure stats perspective, the Bulls look pretty good, but Gwinnett has that 8-game winning streak (although 6 of those wins were against the hapless Charlotte Knights). Of equal importance is that of the 36 games left on the Bulls’ schedule, 12 are against Gwinnett. That is, one-third of the games left in the season will be against the Atlanta Braves franchise. 

Week 6; Success in Nashville

 

The Bulls did just fine in Nashville last week, taking 4 of 6 games. Combined with the week earlier, the Bulls have gone 9 and 3 over the last 12 games. That’s enough to put them in a tie for 5th place in the 20-team International League and just 1.5 games out of 1st. 

That came during some significant roster moves. The most visible of those was a trade of our best pitcher, Evan McKendry, to Milwaukee for an experienced catcher, Alex Jackson. The oddity was that both players were in Nashville at the time, so they just swapped locker rooms. To the Bulls’ credit, they went on to beat McKendry a day or so later and Jackson has gone 5 for 15 over the 4 games he’s played with a home run and 2 doubles.

Other moves included phenom Taj Bradley being sent down to the Bulls last week. Bradley gave up 6 hits (2 home runs) and 4 runs over just 2 innings in his first appearance. Something simply isn’t quite right with Mr. Bradley.  

Infielder Curtis Mead got called up to the Rays. Doesn’t look like he’s going to get much playing time. Hope it doesn’t mess him up. First time in the majors, so congrats.

Stats stuff: The Bulls continue to lead the IL in strikeouts averaging 1 in every 4 plate appearances. Their .352 OBP is down near the bottom, which is certainly another indicator of impatience.  Overall, the pitching has been OK. The Bulls’ ERA of 4.80 is 4th in the IL and has improved over the last couple of weeks.

Looking to the rest of the season. 

The Bulls are playing Memphis, Gwinnett, Norfolk (again), Nashville (again), Charlotte (again), Louisville, and then Gwinnett (again). Only Norfolk is ahead of the Bulls and the Bulls are tied with Louisville. What could that mean? It could mean that the Bulls could have a shot.

Matchup

The oddity of this week’s matchup is that the parent clubs of the teams are also playing each other. St. Louis is down in St. Petersburg where the Rays are trying to keep up with the Orioles. Memphis isn’t doing all that well, but they’ve got a couple of very dangerous hitters who are probably happy to be at the DBAP. 

Matchup: Bulls vs Redbirds, August 8, 2023
As of August 7	W-L	Rk	RDiff	OPS	ERA	WHIP	Fld%
Durham Bulls (Rays)	19-14	5	34	.811	4.79	1.45	.977
Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals)	15-18	16	0	.802	5.04	1.59	.982
RDiff-Run differential;  Rk - Rank in International League; WHIP - Walks/Hits per Inning;

Great Week! Off to Nashville

 Last week was one of the Bulls' best this year. They won 5 of 6 games against the Charlotte Knights. They scored 53 runs to Charlotte's 30. That improved their overall run differential for the year from +9 to  +32. More importantly, they moved up from 11th place in the 2nd half standings to 7th. Standings. At the moment, however, the top of the IL standings is very cluttered. The team in the lead, Buffalo, is only a game ahead of Lehigh Valley. Lehigh Valley is only a half-game ahead of the next two teams, Iowa and St Paul. And those two teams are only a half-game ahead of the next two teams, Norfolk and Worcester. And they are only a half-game ahead of the next three teams, Durham, Indianapolis, and Rochester. Overall, half of the IL's 20 teams are within 3 1/2 games of each other. 

Other geek stuff about last week. The team OPS move up 11 points from .803 to .814. After 102 games, that is substantial movement. There was a slight improvement in their strikeout rate, but they still lead the International League with 1,025. Nor has their baserunning improved. They remain 16th in the IL in stolen bases and #1 in caught stealing.

Meanwhile, the Rays continue to trade away Bulls. Ben Gamel, he of the big red beard, went off to the San Diego Padres' Triple-A team in El Paso, Texas in the middle of July. Yesterday, Kyle Manzardo was part of a trade with the Cleveland Guardians. I'm guessing he will end up with the Columbus Clippers. Probably a big deal in the long run for Rays and Guardians. Stories here and here.

And then RHP Taj Bradley is coming back. That could be good for the Bulls. Bradley didn't do all that well as a Bull earlier this year. Then his first days up with the Rays were exceptional. Not so much lately, though, and he certainly didn't get much run support in the Rays' awful July. So, if he comes back and sorts himself out while helping the Bulls, that could be a good deal all around.

Matchup Bulls vs Sounds

Matchup: Bulls vs Sounds, August 1, 2023
As of July 30	W-L	Rk	RDiff	OPS	ERA	WHIP	Fld%
Durham Bulls (Rays)	15-12	7	32	.814	4.83	1.44	.976
Nashville Sounds (Brewers)	14-12	8	-3	.804	4.51	1.43	.975
RDiff-Run differential;  Rk - Rank in International League; WHIP - Walks/Hits per Inning;

These are two very closely matched teams. In addition to the traditional stats categories, both teams' parent clubs are in the hunt for their clubs' division championship and/or wild card slot. The Brewers are a game and a half back of the Reds and the Rays are a game and a half back of the Orioles.