The Durham Bulls in 2014 — The Hitters — Part 2

In Part 1 we put up a table of all the position players who came to bat in 2014 ordered by the numbers of games they played. Then we discussed four of those players. In this post we'll sort the table by wOBA (less two rehabbers who were left out of the sort) and continue our discussion.

Bulls Player Stats Sorted by wOBA

Name	Age	G	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA
Jerry Sands*	26	54	219	.268	.825	.369	6.8
Kevin Kiermaier*	24	34	143	.305	.823	.369	4.5
Jeremy Moore	27	55	218	.262	.827	.368	6.7
Mikie Mahtook	24	132	550	.292	.820	.366	16.1
Justin Christian	34	127	520	.271	.778	.350	8.8
Cole Figueroa*	27	71	312	.282	.761	.350	5
Vince Belnome*	26	118	492	.245	.740	.341	4.8
Jayson Nix	31	55	216	.272	.748	.339	1.6
Mike Fontenot	34	113	454	.276	.714	.328	-0.3
Curt Casali*	25	46	183	.237	.694	.322	-1
Wilson Betemit	32	111	453	.217	.694	.311	-6.5
Robby Price	26	70	249	.216	.604	.285	-8.6
Nick Franklin	23	27	113	.210	.578	.273	-5
Hak-Ju Lee*	23	93	357	.203	.563	.268	-17.2
Ray Olmedo	33	104	404	.224	.551	.259	-22.3
Tim Beckham*	24	15	65	.258	.572	.256	-3.7
Ali Solis	26	73	266	.203	.514	.234	-19.9
Mayo Acosta	26	32	94	.133	.408	.198	-9.6
Eddy Rodriguez	28	13	49	.152	.443	.198	-5.1
Wil Myers	23	7	31	.250	.961	.409	2
Brandon Guyer	28	5	26	.400	1.238	.533	4.2

   * on the Rays 40-man roster.

Wilson Betemit (111 games) was the rare power hitter in the Bulls lineup this year. But once you crunch all the numbers together he simply did not make that much of a contribution. He played mostly first base and DH and his glove appeared above average. Without drilling too deep into the numbers, our impression is that he was not improving as the year went on. Not likely to be back next year. Stats.

Ray Olmedo (104 games) is an all-time WDBB favorite player. He brings a tremendous amount of energy to the game and the sheer quickness of his hands from catch to release is a great pleasure to watch. This year he extended his repertoire of fielding positions by 20 appearances in the outfield and even had a brief moment at first base (wonder who he borrowed a glove from?). In Ray’s case I’d say the hell with the numbers and bring him back. I just like watching him play. Stats.

Hak-Ju Lee* (93 games) messed up his knee early in the 2013 season and did not return to the Durham Bulls until 23 April of this year. For a long time he has been near the top of various prospect lists, but he was one of the least productive Durham Bulls this year. Was he ready to return? Is his knee up to the job? No fan in the stands is going to be able to tell about that. We don’t think that the Rays are going to give up on the 23 year-old, but here’s hoping that in the off-season they find a way for him to work on his hitting. Stats.

Ali Solis (73 games) is the first of a cluster of four catchers we saw this year. To be perfectly honest, none of them showed Triple A caliber stuff. I hate to say that because I love watching players at that position. Catcher is a tough job at any level, but at Triple A you’ve got pitchers who are (or who think they are) right on the edge of becoming big leaguers. For the last couple of years the Rays system does not seem to be either growing or hiring good catchers. In fact, they seem to be trading some of the good guys away. But that’s for another article. Ali Solis certainly seemed to handle the pitching crew quite well, had a decent arm, and was only charged with seven passed balls. At 26 he’s still young, but his bat needs a lot of work. He did get a callup to the Rays this year and appeared in 8 games. Stats.

Cole Figueroa* (71 games) is another WDBB favorite who had a decent year, mostly at third base. His low number of game appearances with the Bulls is the consequence of his two callups to the Rays in mid-May and six weeks in July and August. He appeared in 23 Rays games after his debut on 16 May.  [Note to self: let’s not rant about the Rays pulling good players up to sit on the bench]. For reasons that are a mystery to us, he does not seem to be part of fanblog discussions over with the Rays. He should be. Otherwise, we would be more than happy to see him back with the Bulls next year. Stats.

Robby Price (70 games) was, by far, the most jerked around player on the Bulls roster this year. It seems every year they Bulls have a player who is kind of a “ghost” player. He’s on the roster for a few days then in a paper transaction is taken off for a few days and then he comes back. Robby Price (and to a lesser extent Mayo Acosta) was that guy this year, he figured in 9 different transactions. The 26 year-old’s numbers aren’t all that great, but without any consistent playing time, how can we judge? The Bulls need a guy like Price on the roster. He even pitched in three games for 2⅓ innings. I’d assume he will be a free agent next year. Here’s hoping he gets a shot with a team that will give him some playing time. Stats. [Update: Price was released by the Rays in late October.]

Jayson Nix (55 games) was apparently brought on board as a deep backup to the Rays infield. The 31 year-old was reasonably productive during his time from mid-May to 1 August. On the other hand we worried about the other infielders available (Price, Fontenot, Olmedo, Lee) who might have lost playing time while he was with the team. Nevertheless, his stats show that he was helpful. He apparently had an opt-out contract. He will likely have some place in baseball trivia questions for his trek from the Phillies to the Bulls to the Pirates to the Kansas City Royals. Not a snowball’s chance he’ll be back with the Bulls next year. Stats.

Jeremy Moore (55 games ) was our joy of the last part of the season. We’d actually forgotten about him being on the non-roster invitee list last spring training, so when he showed up from Montgomery on 25 June we didn’t know quite what to expect. Very exciting guy to watch. Reminded us a lot of Leslie Anderson, not in style, but in the excitement he brought to the game. He started off extremely hot, cooled off a bit, but the Bulls finally had a power hitting outfielder to pair with Mikie Mahtook. With 12 homers in 55 games he was on a league-leading pace. Here’s hoping that the Rays do whatever it takes to bring him back next year. He sure seems like a guy who could do the Bulls (and the Rays) some good. Stats.

Jerry Sands* (54 games) started the season with the Bulls and was doing an extraordinary job. In fact, his stats are among best of any Bull this season. He was called to the Rays at the 1st of June to fill in for an injury down there. On 22 Jun, however, he had a season-ending injury himself. We like what we saw while he was here and we’d love to see him back. We’ve seen very little about his injury status, however. Stats.

Curt Casali* (46 games) was one of the four catchers with the Bulls this year. The 25 year-old came up from the Montgomery Biscuits in early May and was called up to the Rays in mid-July. While with the Bulls he put together some decent numbers, by far the best of any of the catchers this year. His trip to St. Petersburg was not expected to last, but in fact he stayed there for the rest of the year, appearing in 30 games. However, he left Rays’ game on 25 September with a season-ending concussion. Assuming he recovers OK, he is very likely to start next year either with the Rays or the Bulls. Stats.

Kevin Kiermaier* (34 games) was with the Bulls at the beginning of the year and we could not have been more excited. We thought that with Jerry Sands and Mikie Mahtook we were going to see one of the finest outfields in Bulls history. Unfortunately, the Rays could not keep themselves healthy and once Mr. Kiermaier got to the Rays he did everything he could to make sure he would not come back, and he didn’t. He had a terrific year with the Rays, but I sure wish he’d stuck around here a bit longer. Stats.

Mayo Acosta (32 games) started the season with the Bulls and was in the dugout all year. But, as with Robby Price, the young catcher spent much of the year in paper purgatory. We cannot fault a player with such an erratic schedule for never get his timing right. So we are not sure his numbers are actually worth anything at all. Perhaps a better measure of him as a player is to note that he was the guy that got the best relief crew in International League baseball ready to pitch. And then there were the two games where he pitched for 3 innings and got 2 K’s. Stats.

Nick Franklin* (27 games) came to the Bulls as part of the big David Price trade on 1 August. Young Mr. Franklin has a solid reputation. We’ll see. So far we aren’t impressed at all. But apparently the Rays are. He got a lot of September playing time even if he wasn’t hitting. That would imply that he’s on the short list to stay with them next year. Stats.

Tim Beckham* (15 games) returned to the Bulls after surgery and a long rehab on 12 August. We’ve seen a lot of Mr. Beckham over the last few years and we like him. His bat seemed to have a bit more pop than we recall and his speed is still up there. We look forward to seeing him at second or shortstop next year, at least at the start of the season. Next year could be his year. Stats.

Eddy Rodriguez (13 games), the fourth catcher in a Bulls uniform this year, was released in early May when Curt Casali was called up from Montgomery. To be honest, we are a bit surprised he did not catch on somewhere else, but we haven’t found him, so we guess that he’s retired from the game. Update: Thanks to Doug (see comments), we now know he caught on with the Red Sox in a coaching job. Good for him.  Stats.

Wil Myers played in 7 games and Brandon Guyer played in 5 games on rehab assignments. Both did reasonably well and both seemed to be playing hard. Not always the case with rehabbing major leaguers.

The Durham Bulls in 2014 — The Hitters — Part 1

This is the first of a two-part piece on the Bulls hitters in 2014.

In 2014 21 different ballplayers came to bat in a Durham Bulls uniform. That’s a couple more than in 2014 (19), but quite a few less than in previous years. Lack of turmoil may have helped the Bulls, at least a little bit. 

Of those 21, two were on rehab assignments, Wil Myers and Brandon Guyer, so we won’t be paying much attention to their numbers.

We’ll put up two tables as we go along, the first sorted by number of games played and in the next post we’ll put the same table sorted by wOBA. The less familiar stats such as weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs above average (wRAA) are explained at the links. Players with an asterisk are on the Rays 40-man roster. Data sources are Baseball Reference.com and Fangraphs. We’ll talk about the players listed by number of games played.

Bulls Player Stats Sorted by Games Played

Name	Age	G	PA	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRAA
Mikie Mahtook	24	132	550	.292	.820	.366	16.1
Justin Christian	34	127	520	.271	.778	.350	8.8
Vince Belnome*	26	118	492	.245	.740	.341	4.8
Mike Fontenot	34	113	454	.276	.714	.328	-0.3
Wilson Betemit	32	111	453	.217	.694	.311	-6.5
Ray Olmedo	33	104	404	.224	.551	.259	-22.3
Hak-Ju Lee*	23	93	357	.203	.563	.268	-17.2
Ali Solis	26	73	266	.203	.514	.234	-19.9
Cole Figueroa*	27	71	312	.282	.761	.350	5
Robby Price	26	70	249	.216	.604	.285	-8.6
Jayson Nix	31	55	216	.272	.748	.339	1.6
Jeremy Moore	27	55	218	.262	.827	.368	6.7
Jerry Sands*	26	54	219	.268	.825	.369	6.8
Curt Casali*	25	46	183	.237	.694	.322	-1
Kevin Kiermaier*	24	34	143	.305	.823	.369	4.5
Mayo Acosta	26	32	94	.133	.408	.198	-9.6
Nick Franklin	23	27	113	.210	.578	.273	-5
Tim Beckham*	24	15	65	.258	.572	.256	-3.7
Eddy Rodriguez	28	13	49	.152	.443	.198	-5.1
Wil Myers	23	7	31	.250	.961	.409	2
Brandon Guyer	28	5	26	.400	1.238	.533	4.2

Mikie Mahtook (132 games) led the 2014 Durham Bulls in just about every offensive category. He played in the most games, had the best wRAA, the most RBI, most stolen bases (only 18 though), and more. With maybe just one more hit in the last couple of games he would have finished above .300. He spent about half his time in center field and the rest pretty much divided between center field and left field. In a perfect world we’d like to see a slightly better walk to strikeout ratio. His was 0.34 (the team best, Cole Figueroa, was 1.50). At 24 he is one of the true prospects on the team and we expect the Rays are going to have to put him on the 40-man next season. Even so, we expect to see him back in Bulls uniform next season and we’ll be happy to see him. Stats. 

Justin Christian (127 games) had a fine year with the Bulls. The 34 year old right hand batting outfielder batted leadoff much the year and fairly equally divided his time between the outfield positions.  That would be because much of the year the Bulls only had two true outfielders and he and Mahtook had to cover the deepest fields of whatever park they were in, while an infielder played the shallowest field. Will he stick with the Rays system? Hard to say. Certainly the Bulls needed him this year and we were glad to have him. Our hope would be for him to return. Stats.

Vince Belnome* (118 games) had a very disappointing year, although things picked up near the end. He never looked very comfortable at the plate and was nothing like the star we watched in 2013, where his numbers eclipsed anyone’s on this year’s team by far. What the Rays (and the Bulls) are going to have to figure out is whether 2013 or 2014 should be the expectation. Mr. Belnome did get his first callup this year, appearing in 4 games with the Rays and picking up a double and an RBI. Will he stay on the 40-man? Hard to say. At a guess, the Rays are going to give the 26 year-old another year. Stats.

Mike Fontenot (113 games) is a favorite of WDBB and we were somewhat surprised at his low wRAA stat. It seemed to us that he was doing better over the year. He did a solid job at second base. I was also a bit surprised to see that he only stole 5 bases. Sure seemed like he was a threat out there. At 34 he’s probably heading back into the free agent pool. He’s given the Bulls two good years and no reason not to have him back for another, depending on what the Rays are looking for in the future. Stats.

The Durham Bulls in 2014 — Charts

Over the next week or so we’ll be putting up various charts and tables describing the 2014 season. The Bulls themselves have an interesting summary here that’s worth reviewing. And the David Egbert over at Rays Colored Glasses has taken a look at the season from the Rays perspective.

Overall, the Durham Bulls had 26 pitchers get up on the mound in 2014 and 21 different ballplayers came to bat. Overall stats. We’ll take a look at the individuals later.

The first chart shows the Bulls off to a hot start. Remembering that early in the season the Bulls play mostly against their South Division competitors, those couple of weeks pretty much set the stage for the first half. However, the Bulls peaked at the exact mid-season, game 72 on June 15, at 14 games above .500. A huge fall-off from there to the All-Star break was followed by a fairly stable won-loss pattern for the rest of the year. In the meantime, only the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore) made a serious run at the South Division title, but they peaked at 7 games below .500.

This is a striking difference from last year when the Bulls finished 30 games above .500. Nevertheless, enough to win the South and that’s good.

[Note: in all cases clicking on the chart will get you a larger image]

The cumulative runs scored less runs allowed chart follows a similar pattern and points out that the Bulls simply didn’t score a lot of runs this year.

The Bulls strength this year was pitching. This chart tracks the ERA of the team after the first couple of weeks of the season. Notice how it jumps up at exactly the same time that the Bulls fell off their games above .500 high mark in mid-season. However, as a group, the 2014 starting crew really wasn’t all that good. At their best, the starters were a little above 3.50 and by season’s end they were around 4.25. Again, a distinct difference from the 2013 crew. However, the performance of the relievers was simply stunning. They were extraordinary at the start of the season, had some troubles mid-season, but certainly looked great at the end of the year.

The 2014 hitters, not so good. In fact, the Bulls had the worst batting average in the International League, .248, and were 12th of 14 in team OPS. This busy-looking chart is a plot of the game-by-game OPS of the last half of the season. The red line is a trend. What’s important to note is how rarely it even approaches an “average” OPS. Not a good year at bat.

What's missing from all these charts is the good time we had at the ballpark this year. Lots to cheer about, a lot of terrific baseball was witnessed, and a pretty terrific renovation. More about that later.

Game 5; The Last Hurrah

Wool E. Bull waves good-bye
Chris Baird, WRAL

International League Governors’ Cup (Best of 5); 2-3
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, International League, News & Observer

It seems to strange to not have a game to look forward to, but that is how the end of the season feels.

Last night the Bulls were out-hit and out-pitched and now they’ve scattered, mostly, to their homes.

We are going to be a long time trying to forget how they were one strike away from another championship. But surely the Pawtucket Red Sox feel the same way. I wrote much earlier that sometimes the playoffs come down to who has the better AA team, and that was a piece of it. Two pitchers and a hitter were new to the Sox and they did just fine the last two games. They helped.

The Pawtucket Red Sox took the trophy away. Maybe next year. In the meantime, plenty to like about this year.

I’ll dig back into my numbers and put up some thoughts about this year’s team and this year’s season. All things considered. It worked out just fine.

Outside the game —

• Nick Franklin, Alex Colome, and C. J. Riefenhauser were called up to the Tampa Bay Rays. Colome will be getting a start with the Rays tomorrow. All the best to all of them. Sure wish that Adam Liberatore had gotten a shot as well.

Game 4 to the PawSox; Tonight's the Night

DBAP, 7 am, 13 Sep

International League Governors’ Cup (Best of Five); 2-2
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun, International League

It must have been tough to be on the grounds crew last night. A game was lost, but fireworks show went on as advertised. So they had to fix the field and spread the tarp because it looked like rain (and it did). Must have been 1 o’clock in the morning after a long, long losing game. But it looks like they got the job done early this morning. Thank you!

Merrill Kelly is up tonight. One more trek back to the DBAP. Here’s hoping the weather holds and the Bulls come back. Last chance.

Game 3 to the Durham Bulls; One More for the Cup!

Wool E. Bull and friends dance for the crowd last night.
Chris Baird, WRAL

International League Governors’ Cup (Best of Five): 2-1
Wrap, Box, Providence Journal, Herald-Sun, International League

The moment that I circled on my scorecard last night was Cole Figueroa’s at bat in the 3rd inning. Justin Christian had led off with a double and the Bulls were down 0-2 after the Pawsox scored single runs in the 2nd and 3rd innings. The Sox’s Henry Owens wasn’t quite cruising, but he had not seen any real trouble either. Figueroa stretched him out to at least 8 pitches (my count may be off) and on the 9th pitch he hit a very sharp grounder to short. Christian took off for 3rd base. Shortstop Deven Marrero chose to throw to 3rd, threw it high, and the Bulls ended up with runners on 1st and 3rd, nobody out. Jeremy Moore’s single brought Christian home. Tim Beckham’s double brought Figueroa and Moore home. As it turned out, Nick Franklin’s solo home run in the 6th was the key run, but the Bulls had to get those first three runs across first.

What a change to have a starting pitcher set the stage. For the second time in the playoffs Matt Adriese did his job and did it well, going a full six innings. In the 5th he was going so well that he struck out the side. In the 6th he was still looking good, but his pitch count was into the high 90’s and it was time to change.

Both relievers had pitched on Thursday night’s marathon, but they were back and did just fine. I thought that the game was in the bag after C.J. Riefenhauser got out of trouble in the 7th and had a clean 8th. However, as he often does, Josh Lueke provided some last-minute, not particularly welcome, thrills.

The unearned run that scored in the 9th was the first run of any kind against Bulls relievers in this entire series, something like 16+ innings. That’s a testimony to the relief corps even as it says something sad about the starting crew.

I also want to call out Wilson Betemit’s glovework at first base. For some reason everyone, right and left handers alike, were slapping stuff towards right field last night and a couple of them went right down the line. Betemit grabbed at least two that I recall that if not stopped would have created real problems.

Now What?

• Weather is threatening tonight and it looks even worse for tomorrow. 
• Mike Montgomery, who had a pretty decent outing back on August 28th, is scheduled to be the starter. 
• New guy Bryce Stowell is in the bullpen since Nathan Karns starts tonight for the Tampa Bay Rays and the Rays finally took him off the Bulls roster. 
• You have to expect both managers to go all in tonight. All of Durham’s relievers except Riefenhauser and Lueke are available. Even, as Scott Pose suggested last night, Enny Romero could be available for a batter or two for a couple of 98+ fastballs. 
• The Pawtucket starter is making his first appearance at Triple A level. 
• The Bulls could take it all tonight, and wouldn’t that be grand?

Nice Look for Tonight

Scott & Co are doing us proud.

click for larger view

Game 2 to the Durham Bulls; Greatest Game of the Year?

Wrap, Box, Providence Journal, International League (video)

This should go down as one of the great games in Bulls history, certainly one of the greatest this season.

It started off, however, even worse than Tuesday’s loss when Alex Colome began the 1st inning by giving up a single and two walks to load the bases. Only one run scored, though. But then the leadoff batter in the 2nd inning hit a triple and that was followed by a home run. Colome did get a K, but then walked the next batter. That would be 3 hits (single, triple, and homer), 3 walks, 3 runs, on 54 pitches in 1⅓ innings. Jake Thompson came on and got the Bulls out of the inning stranding two runners.

That was the Bulls pitching story for the rest of the night. Durham relievers Thompson, Merrill Kelly, C.J. Riefenhauser, Josh Lueke, and Adam Liberatore dominated the Red Sox. They did let a few on base, but some heads up baseball kept any more runs from scoring.

Nevertheless, into the 9th inning the game was creepily similar to Tuesday. The Pawsox were still up by a run and Bulls were rarely even getting on base after Justin Christian singled in the 3rd and was brought home by Mikie Mahtook’s home run. In fact, until the 9th, Mahtook had the only RBIs of the Governors’ Cup series.

The fun (for Bulls fans) began in the 9th with Vince Belnome’s home run to tie the game. What a thrill to see him come through after all his struggles this year.

Both managers went into playoff mode. Wilson Betemit came in as a pinch-hitter, Pawtucket switched out pitchers, etc. But in the bottom of the 9th Josh Lueke, who’d come on in the 8th, managed to keep things under control. Lueke stayed on until after the first out of the 10th when Adam Liberatore came on.

So there we were in the 11th. Essentially out of pitchers (more about that later) and only six hits in the entire previous 10 innings. Vince Belnome drew a walk. Ali Solis gets on base on a catcher interference call (good call, you could see the dust come off the catcher’s mitt on TV). And Mike Fontenot singled Belnome home.

Adam Liberatore, who’s most difficult game this year only went 33 pitches, dug in and threw 44 in this outing to close things out and earn, really earn, the win.

But that’s the 2014 Bulls. Solid relief pitching, solid defense, and occasional clutch hits.

Outside the game —

• About that 11th inning. The last man standing in the bullpen was Cory Burns, who’d pitched 2 innings on Tuesday. What about some of the other pitchers (e.g., Bryce Stowell or Andrew Bellatti) whom we saw around last week? Well, in their wisdom the Rays are bringing up Nathan Karns, but have not put him on their roster yet, so the Bulls could only use 24 of the 25 players allowed on their roster. Why would the Rays do that when they’ve got 40 spots available? No excuse, it seems to me. It’s cold comfort that the Boston Red Sox are treating their AAA team even worse. Take a look at the comments buried in the Providence Journal link above. 
• Numbers: Believe it or not, the attendance numbers up in Providence at 3,600 for Tuesday and 4,100 for Wednesday (the last home game of the season for the Pawsox) are pretty good. Unlike the majors, minor league playoff baseball just doesn’t give the marketers enough time to sell the games. 
• I’m worried about the weather. Tonight looks marginal. Tomorrow and the rest of the week looks very tricky. I have no idea what the rules are regarding this. If anyone does know, please chime in.

Governors' Cup Game 1 to the PawSox

International League Governors’ Cup (Best of Five): 0-1
Wrap, Box, Providence Journal

Life got in the way of baseball today. Probably no news here for Bulls fans. But just for the record.

Enny Romero started because Alex Colome was sick, perhaps a small bout of food poisoning. Romero was not sharp at all, but it could have been much worse in his three innings. By the time he was pulled the Pawsox had left five runners on base. The relief crew did just fine, only giving up one hit and not letting anyone past first base. Doug Mathis, if fact, had a 3 K stretch, and 4 on the night. Very likely that was his best outing of the year. Cory Burns did fine as well.

But the hitters did not. It’s hard to win games when you leave 9 runners on base. The 9th inning was particularly tough with the bases loaded and one out and no one scoring.

Alex Colome is scheduled to start tonight.

Outside the game —

• Persistent chatter/reporting that Nathan Karns has been called up to the Rays and will start a game this Friday. That punches a hole in the Bulls’ rotation if the series goes to five games (Mike Montgomery available to pitch game four). 
• TV coverage OK (channel 1250 on TW cable). Somewhat delayed from the radio broadcast. So you could listen to Patrick Kinas, then pay attention to the play. Actual view of the game very limited by lack of cameras, and I've gotten spoiled by the HD we get locally.
• Great quote from Charlie Montoyo reported by Kinas last night: "You know it's been a good year when you start the year in long johns and finish it in long johns."

Tonight's Game on Local TV?

According to this article at WRAL’s site, tonight’s game will be televised locally. I hope so. Bound to be better than squinting at my computer screen.

Every game of the series will be televised on MeTV 50.2 or Time Warner Cable channel 1250; livestreamed on WRALSportsFan.com and heard on 620 The Buzz.

Plus there's a terrific unedited interview with Charlie Montoyo that discusses the last game with Columbus.

Note that latest word from the Bulls is that Enny Romero will be starting tonight, not Alex Colome. Guess they've switched.

Nice preview from the International League here.

Once More Into the Breach

International League Governors' Cup

What a terrific time to be a Bulls fan. Here we are with a team full of players on very few radars except ours. They have every incentive to just keep on chasing after the cup for the next couple of days against a team that by most statistical measures has an edge on them.

The Bulls are up in Pawtucket, Rhode Island to play for the International League’s Governors’ Cup against the Boston Red Sox's Triple A club ... again. Last year the series started in Durham and moved to Pawtucket. This year the series starts in Pawtucket and moves to Durham this Thursday.

Let’s start with the best single page matchup article. It’s over in the Hit Bulls Win Blog. There we find out that the Boston Red Sox have ripped off a couple of key players from Pawtucket, but that they’ve also called up a very hot, famous Cuban defector, Rusney Castillo, from AA. More on Castillo from the Providence, RI paper here.

Mostly we agree with the author of the Bulls Blog on their assessments. Plus the trash talk near the end is worthy of a look.

Left out was the projected starting rotation, possibly because Charlie Montoyo has not yet announced it. Our best guess is that he will use the same rotation we saw against Columbus: Alex Colome, Enny Romero, Matt Andriese, Nathan Karns, and Mike Montgomery. If experience counts, then that is a formidable lineup and certainly the match for Pawtucket. We have to note, however, that of the four starts last week, only one starter (Andriese) got a win.

We all know that the Bulls bullpen has both front line and second line talent in Merrill Kelly, Adam Liberatore, Josh Lueke, C.J. Riefenhauser, Jake Thompson, Doug Mathis, plus new guys Cory Burns and Bryce Stowell. The actual roster, of course, will likely shift around a lot. At a guess they are carrying at least three, and probably more, players who aren’t on the roster, but who could jump up if needed.

But this is WDBB, so we’ve got to put some numbers up there even if we have to make the contradictory assertion that for a short playoff season, then don’t mean all that much.

The item that jumps out of the seasonal stats is the runs scored. Those guys scored a ton of runs during the year. And they scored 17 more in their 3-game first-round playoff series against Syracuse. The Bulls only scored 15 runs over 4 games.

What needs to happen? Good pitching. Good defense. Keep the pressure on with aggressive base running. Look for Nick Franklin to add some value as he seeks a callup. Look for Ray Olmedo to do something special either on the field, at bat, or in the dugout.

Expectations? Too much time off for both teams. Expect some mistakes, maybe some rust. Maybe some end of season lack of focus. On both sides. Expect Patrick Kinas to call a good game.

Hopes: At least one Bulls win in Pawtucket.

Game 4 to the Bulls; On to the Cup!

Governors’ Cup Playoffs (Best of 5): 3-1; Bulls Win!
Wrap, Box

If you were one of those who were second-guessing yourself about your advance purchase of playoff tickets, guess what, you made the right decision to buy. Congratulations. You’re going to get to use at least one more of them.

Not that finding a good seat for next Thursday’s game is likely to be a problem, but that’s OK. You kept the faith.

This was a the kind of game you love to watch. Excellent pitching on both sides. The season on the line. Even a key baseball maxim not observed,  “Don’t walk the leadoff batter.” The Clippers did just that three times and two of them scored.

But to go back to the beginning: Nathan Karns showed his stuff today. Just 1 earned run in 7 innings with 12 strikeouts. And the run that scored was on — you guessed it — a leadoff batter who drew Karns’ only walk of the day.

Meanwhile the Bulls were adventurous (they stole 4 bases during the game), but scoreless until the 5th, when Tim Beckham walked, stole second, and scored on a Nick Franklin single. In the 6th it was Cole Figueroa who drew the walk, got to 2B on a Mahtook ground out, scored on a Jeremy Moore single.

But the Clippers were not about to give up and came back with single runs in the 7th off Karns and the 8th of Merrill Kelly, who was in in short relief for the first time this year, I think.

That meant the Bulls needed some heroes in the 8th and they got them in Cole Figueroa (single, stolen base), Jeremy Moore (double, scoring Figueroa), and Vince Belnome (double, scoring Moore, but it sure looked like a home run from the stands). Merrill Kelly closed out the 9th to a noisy, but sadly small crowd of just 1,800 or so.

This is a big deal. Playing for the Governors’ Cup again is a stunning achievement.

The Bulls now go up against the Pawtucket Red Sox, in Pawtucket, Tuesday night. Should be a big game. We’ll post the rotation as it becomes available.

Game 3 to the Bulls

Mahtook barehands a ball off the wall. His throw prevented a triple in the 8th.
Photo: Robert Willett, News & Observer

Governors’ Cup Playoffs (Best of 5): 2-1
Wrap, Box, News & Observer, International League

Today’s game starts at 1:05! If you bought advance tickets, ignore the 7:05 start time printed on the ticket. Why the early start? Maybe because of all the football going on around the area ... although Trinity College is on the road.

Meanwhile, how about the Bulls!

What an terrific baseball game. Nice post-season crowd of Bulls fanatics. Matt Adriese, who had four no-decisions in recent games, pretty much kept the Clippers in hand. The notable exception was the beginning of the 5th inning when the first two batters hit solo home runs and brought the Clippers to within one run.

The first home run was hit by former Bull Elliot Johnson, a stalwart from years past and still a favorite of WDBB. And of at least one fog-horn-voiced fan who serenaded his first at bat with, “E-L-L-I-O-T.” A notable difference from years past when the call from the same fan was, “Elliot, get a hit.”  Elliot Johnson still stands tall on our all-time greatest Bulls hitters list, even if we have to say that we’d appreciate a modest slump for the next two days.

Meanwhile, Bulls hitters were aggressive in the 1st and 2nd innings with Justin Christian doubling on the first pitch of the game, moving to third base on a Mikie Mahtook ground out, and scoring on a Jeremy Moore single. Then Tim Beckham doubled Moore in. Nick Franklin led off the 2nd inning with a thrilling home run and I thought the Bulls were going to run away with it. That didn’t happen. Instead the great Bulls bullpen came out for the 6th and took charge.

C.J. Riefenhauser was his old self, much recovered from his tough outing on Wednesday. Charlie Montoyo was not saving his pitching staff. Both Lueke and Adam Liberatore pitched on Thursday night (Lueke got the win, Liberatore got the save). And here they were after an 8-hour bus ride back out there. Josh Lueke had a lead off double, but a nice play by Mikie Mahtook prevented a triple. But that was the last life of the Clippers. After three quick outs, Adam Liberatore came in for three more outs and the save.

What does it mean? Well it means more baseball at the DBAP! The Bulls have two chances to win this playoff round, but today would be a lot better than tomorrow. Nathan Karns is scheduled to start. He’s had some awful outings lately, yet he’s also a talented young man. We can hope.

I glanced back at this time last year and was surprised to see so many familiar names: Cole Figueroa, Vince Belnome, Tim Beckham, Mike Fontenot, Merrill Kelly, Adam Liberatore, and probably a couple others I’ve missed.

Meanwhile, the Pawtucket Red Sox swept the Syracuse Chiefs in three games and are now waiting to see who they will play for the Governors’ Cup.

Leaning over the dugout rail were two ballplayers we have not seen before: Andrew Bellatti, a 22 year-old right-handed reliever who had a decent year with the Biscuits (stats) and Taylor Motter, a 24 year old outfielder (mostly) who played a lot of baseball in Montgomery this year — 116 games (stats). I’d guess that, if needed, we will see some roster manipulations, but for now they just have really good seats for the games.

Game 2 to the Bulls

Columbus Clippers catcher Dusty Brown (27) can’t hold onto the ball as he tries to tag Durham Bulls third baseman [sic] Ray Olmedo (13) at home plate in the 9th inning. 
Kyle Robertson, Columbus Dispatch

Playoffs (Best of 5): 1-1
Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch

We are going to get to see at least two more home games this year. Good news for Bulls fans. Wonder if we are going to do any better in attendance than Pawtucket (2,560) or Columbus (5,158) did last night? At least there will be fireworks after the game, and maybe in the game.

Note that Saturday is a 1:00 pm day game — that’s 1300 for my former colleagues.

About last night ...

A thriller all around. I watched the game on MiLB TV, but listened to the stream of Patrick Kinas, which was 5-20 seconds behind. Created the illusion that I was going to know something before Patrick did. I knew Ray Olmedo (pinch-running for Vince Belnome) missed his grab for the plate, but the Clippers Dusty Brown could not handle the ball and Olmedo was able to dance back to the plate and score the tying run in the 9th.

That comeback was atypical of the 2014 Bulls, but could not have been more welcome. What was typical was the absolute shutdown of the Clippers by the Bulls relief corps. Merrill Kelly, Josh Lueke, and Adam Liberatore combined for 5 solid innings allowing just one hit as the Bulls chipped away with a run in the 7th, 9th, and the winning run in the 10th.

Cole Figueroa led off the 10th with a triple and it looked like at least one run was in the bag. But the Bulls needed a gift from the Clippers’ second baseman who let Mikie Mahtook on base. With just one out, Tim Beckham launched a fly ball to center field that let Figueroa score the winning. Adam Liberatore shut down the Clippers to finish the game.

Both teams took overnight busses to Durham. They should be in town by now. The field looks magnificent even after last night’s deluge.

Over in Pawtucket, the Red Sox defeated the Chiefs 8-2 (who were stripped of talent in the September call-ups). Could we be looking for another Red Sox/Bulls playoff?

Outside the game —

• Terrific bit of analysis out of The Atlantic that attributes the falloff in major league hitting to better umpiring! The article contends that the little boxes we see on the screen showing the strike zone has had the effect of significantly increasing called strikes, especially in the bottom of the zone (thus more swinging strikes, ground balls, etc.) Makes a lot of sense to us. The data are pretty persuasive. And another reason that the transition from the minors to the majors is more difficult for hitters than for pitchers.

Game 1 to the Clippers

Playoffs (Best 3 of 5): 0-1
Wrap, Box, Columbus Dispatch

When we looked at the matchup yesterday, the only significant advantage the Bulls had over the Clippers was pitching. That could have been further refined to specify relief pitching since the Bulls relief corps had an ERA on the season of just 2.70. That advantage was not evident last night. Reliever C. J. Riefenhauser came into the game just after Jeremy Moore’s home run had brought the Bulls within a single run of the Clippers.

Things got ugly, quickly.

Three runs on 4 hits and a walk later Riefenhauser was out of the game after pitching only ⅔ of an inning. Jake Thompson got the Bulls out of the 6th, but gave up two runs of his own in the next inning. Cory Burns came on for a clean 9th, but by then it was far too late.

Outside the game —

• If you’ve already got MiLB-TV, check out the quality contrast between what’s coming out of Columbus vs. what comes out of Durham (or Pawtucket for that matter). Very poor quality.  If you don't have MiLB-TV, don't waste your money on tonight. We’ve got a great crew in Durham and their feed into MiLB-TV is the best I’ve seen from IL parks.
• The Bulls did a bit of rosterification yesterday. Of interest mostly to obsessives such as WDBB. Pitcher Merrill Kelly came on to the roster from Limbo. Catcher Luke Maile came onto the roster from Montgomery. Pitcher Bryce Stowell was sent back to Montgomery. Catcher Mayo Acosta was assigned to Montgomery. I’d bet that all of these are paper transactions and all the players mentioned are in the Bulls dugout up in Columbus.
• Pawtucket won the first round of the other IL playoff round, beating Syracuse in a bottom-of-the-10th inning thriller. The Providence Journal has the story.
• Small crowds in Columbus (4,437) and Pawtucket (2,326). 

Playoffs Begin

If we are talking numbers the Bulls are in trouble tonight. As the table shows, the Bulls are far behind the Clippers in all of the usual categories except team ERA.

If we're talking history, the last time the Bulls met the Clippers in a playoffs (2011) the Clippers blew by them in 3 games. So that doesn’t look so good.

Managing? Well, Columbus’ Mike Sarbaugh has two Governors’ Cup championships and a National Championship as well. And the Clippers have had much the same sort of roster turmoil as the Bulls this year, as the Columbus Dispatch links below will show.

On the other hand, if pitching really is the key, then the Bulls are leading off with three strong candidates — Alex Colome, Enny Romero, and Matt Andriese. Plus, even though Tampa Bay did grab two relievers up, the Bulls still have Merrill Kelly, C.J. Riefenhauser and a couple others for long relief. Adam Liberatore and Josh Lueke for endgame are without peer in the International League.

Then there’s the “diamond”, the defensive capabilities of the catcher, middle infielders, and center fielder. The Bulls are as good as any team in the league at those positions, and they have remarkable depth.

Lastly we have to remember that this is baseball, a game of inches and fractions of inches, where a tiny mistake or a little bit of luck can mean everything. This has been a 144 game grind for the Bulls. As Charlie Montoyo (quoted in the Herald-Sun) said before they left.

“Making big plays when you had to, making big pitches when you had to,” Montoyo said. “I don’t take this year for granted for sure because you don’t see many teams win a division last in hitting or even fourth or fifth in pitching. But we were and so we ground it out. A bunch of good professionals out there.”

These professionals have it within them to keep on winning games. Let’s see what happens.

Background Cup Coverage —

• Under ordinary circumstances I don’t link to newspapers with paywalls, and Durham’s Herald-Sun is the only home town newspaper in Triple-A baseball that has a paywall. But this is a good piece by Steve Wiseman, who has done some good work this year. So maybe check out a newsstand near you (are there newsstands any more?).
• Up in Columbus, the Dispatch has done a couple of pieces here and here, about their team.  
• The International League has a backgrounder here.

Notes on 2014 and South Division Championships

Or, How about them Rays?

The contract between the Durham Bulls and the Tampa Bay Rays has just been extended for another four years. Last night that led to some chatter on the air regarding the terrific seven out of eight year South Division championship run.

Color commentator Scott Pose ascribed that success to the Rays system finding and flowing prospects through the Bulls. As much as I like Mr. Pose, and he’s forgotten more about baseball than I will ever know, I’d like to disagree. Having prospects playing for the Bulls has little to do with winning championships. In fact, in probably hurts.

However, the Rays have have been very, very smart on their off-season hires, that obscure category of player that shows up at spring training with the label, “minor league contract, non-roster invitee.” Just take a look at this year’s list (the players marked with the † are the ones in that category). Or just look at the players who are on the Bulls roster right now. The “prospects” are Hak-Ju Lee, Tim Beckham, and Mikie Mahtook among the position players, Mike Montgomery and Nathan Karns among the pitchers. Only one of those (Mahtook) made any significant contribution to the Bulls championship run. Essentially all of the rest on the current roster, even those on the 40-man like Vince Belnome and Cole Figueroa, were never in any “prospect” class. But they have been huge factors in the Bulls winning this year's championship. And players like them were who won championships in the past years.

Notice those on that list with † by their names who really helped this year: pitchers Matt Andriese, Steve Geltz, and Merrill Kelly; position players Jayson Nix, Ray Olmedo, Justin Christian, Wilson Betemit, Jeremy Moore; not to mention a couple that I couldn’t figure out at the time, catchers Eddy Rodriguez and Ali Solis. Ballplayers like that win championships, and we are grateful for the astuteness of Rays scouts for finding and signing them.

And then we have to appreciate what it takes to keep a team like this together. Charlie Montoyo’s crew of Dave Myers and Neil Allen are self-evidently doing a great job.

Prospects, in my observation, don’t usually help the Bulls all that much, especially pitching prospects. Often as not the pitchers are out on the mound working on a particular aspect of their own "development," winning a game sometimes appears secondary. For position players, the Bulls sometimes see them for a while, but sometimes they don’t hang around very long (Even Longoria, Wil Myers) or can’t get into synch while with the Bulls (B.J. Upton, Delmon Young). Those that are truly developing can help a lot (Mikie Mahtook this year, for example), but sometimes they are at the low end of the scale (Hak-Ju Lee this year). Not that it isn’t fun to see the kids play ball, because you sometimes got to see flashes of real brilliance, but they don't win championships. Guys like Chris Richard, Dan Johnson, Joe Dillon, Ray Olmedo, Mike Fontenot, Justin Christian, Leslie Anderson, Shelley Duncan and a host of other unfamiliar names are the guys the Rays found, signed, and sent to Durham, and who won us all those championships.

That’s why WDBB is happy to see the Bulls re-sign their deal with the Rays. If they keep finding guys like this year's crowd, we can hope to go on seeing good baseball and winning championships.

Season Wraps Up With Win; 5 Hits, 5 Runs

Season: 75-69
Wrap, Box

Justin Christian must not have gotten the memo about it being the last game of the season. Instead of relaxing and being careful, he hit a home run and a double off the wall, stole third base, scored two of the Bulls five runs, and made a couple of nice plays in center field.

He was just part of a very pleasant (a bit warm) afternoon at the DBAP. We saw some good baseball, including four double plays by the Bulls infield. I doubt that’s a record, but still very welcome on a day when your opponents are getting on base. We were reminded what a smooth, competent infielder Ray Olmedo is as he started two, and was the pivot man in the third double play. Pitcher Doug Mathis started the other one, a 1-6-3.

Speaking of pitchers, this was a bullpen day as Charlie Montoyo apparently wanted to set his rotation to begin on Wednesday in Columbus. They did a remarkable job. Doug Mathis had not pitched since August 15, but got through his three innings only giving up a bases-empty home run. Similarly, Jake Thompson last pitched on August 13, but he got the win and pitched three scoreless. Lastly, newcomer Cory Burns made his 6th and longest appearance as a Bull, also going three scoreless innings.

Oddity of the game? Every Bull who got on base scored, all by hits. Nobody was going to wait for a walk, it seemed. That is, in my experience, unique: 5 hits (two doubles, a homer, and three singles), 5 runs.

A very good year that we’ll be writing about a bit as we start closing things out. But this was just a nice baseball game all by itself. Thanks, guys. It was fun.

Two Down; One to Go

Season: 74-69; Home Stand: 0-2; Games Remaining in Season: 1
Wrap, Box Game 142, Box Game 143

Interesting day at the ballpark yesterday afternoon and evening. At first we seemed to have the place to ourselves and then the DBAP filled up. They had a record ticket sales for a game—11,104—but they didn’t all use their tickets. Lots of empty seats. Too bad. They missed seeing a triple play. That just doesn’t happen very often. The Bulls set an all-time season attendance record, the most fans in the team's 100+ history — 525,199.

The first game was a resumption of Saturday’s shortened game over in Norfolk. The Bulls picked up two runs, but they needed three. The big deal, for Bulls’ fanatics, was seeing right-hand reliever Bryce Stowell on the mound. The Rays are going after the Bulls’ bullpen, so the Bulls are going to need Mr. Stowell this week. At 27, he’s been working hard for this opportunity and he’s had a fine 50 innings in Montgomery this year. He only gave up two hits yesterday. Stats.

The second game was notable for the triple play in the 3rd inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, a sharp grounder to Mike Fontenot, who stepped on 3rd, threw to Nick Franklin at 2nd, who relayed to Vince Belnome at 1st. Very pretty.

On the other hand, even a double play in the 1st inning and a triple play in the 3rd inning wasn’t enough to keep Nathan Karns from being charged with 7 earned runs, his 9th loss of the season, and the worst ERA of any Durham Bulls starter (we’re not counting Jeremy Hellickson’s painful rehab assignment). On the other hand, it looks like he’s going to end the season tied for most strikeouts of any pitcher in the International League (153). So he’s a mixed bag of talent and readability by his opponents (sometimes).

Update (10:20): You can watch the triple play here.

It really did look like the Bulls had this one in the bag after Jeremy Moore’s three-run homer topped off a 4-run 1st inning. Then Hak-Ju Lee hit just his 4th home run off his countryman Suk-min Yoon in the 2nd. With one more run in the 3rd it was looking good. But the 5th was a mess for Karns. Even with bases-loaded opportunities later in the game, the Bulls could not come back (not a strength this year).

But a lot is going on in the bigger picture outside the game...

Rosterification —

• Brandon Gomes and Steve Geltz have been called up to Tampa Bay. Gomes has been back and forth a good bit this year, but this is the first time that Geltz has been to the majors since a couple of appearances for the Angels back in 2012. Here’s hoping that he gets his shot and he does well. Geltz wasn’t on the 40-man, so some sort of move is going to have to be made there as well.
• Jake Thompson and Doug Mathis are back from Limbo, or wherever it was the Rays stashed them for the last few days. In fact, Mathis is scheduled to start today.
• We’ve mentioned Bryce Stowell up from Montgomery. With his two innings he looks to be a lock to be this year’s winner of the Moonlight Graham Award for pitchers.
• Seen wearing catcher’s gear in the bullpen was Luke Maille, a young catcher who spent this year with the Montgomery Biscuits. If he gets to bat today (or during the playoffs) it will be his first game in Triple-A. But no roster transaction has been announced. Stats.
• Merril Kelly was sent off to Limbo to await recall. Soon, we hope.

Playoff Prep —

• The Pawtucket Red Sox are to be the International League Wild Card team. They will be playing the Syracuse Chiefs for the first round of the playoffs.
• The Bulls rotation, per broadcaster Kinas, will be 

           Alex Colome
           Enny Romero
           Matt Andriese
           Nate Karns
           Mike Montgomery

• Here’s hoping the Bulls can sweep the Clippers in three ...